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Archive for October, 2006

Sector Watch-Chemicals (CEX)

Monday, October 30th, 2006

Chemicals (CEX)
Bullish

Sector trading above its…
20-day Moving Average: YES
50-day Moving Average: YES
100-day Moving Average: YES

Sentiment:Analyst rankings on the sector indicate 43 percent “buys” or higher, while the sector’s composite SOIR has pushed into pessimistic territory at a 54 percentile ranking. Short interest continues its huge unwinding. An overall bearish bias remains in the picture, a positive for the sector.

Outlook: The CBOE S&P Chemicals Index hit a 19-month high last week, overcoming (at least for the time being) potential double-top resistance at its May high. Expect that continued weakness in crude oil prices due to relaxing seasonal demand will help fuel CEX strength. With some pessimism evident among options players and fundamentals strengthening, we expect the sector to continue pushing higher.

Sector Watch-Utilities (UTY)

Monday, October 30th, 2006

Utilities (UTY): Neutral
It is trading above its…
20-day Moving Average: YES
50-day Moving Average: YES
100-day Moving Average: YES

Sentiment:Sentiment:The Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) percentile rank for the Utilities HOLDRs (UTH ?128.53) remains near its lowest level of the past year (translation: optimistic). Fund flows into the utility sector have been strong, indicating that the general investing public is perhaps becoming too optimistic toward these stocks.

Outlook:Despite last week’s breakout, utilities have lagged the market for more than two months. Yet optimism remains strong. Last week’s break above a two-month trading range has raised our outlook. But we remain cautious in light of the growing optimism. We thus move to a neutral rating.

Sector Watch-Networking (NWX)

Monday, October 30th, 2006

Technicals
Networking (NWX)
Bullish
Sector trading above its…
20-day Moving Average: YES
50-day Moving Average: YES
100-day Moving Average: YES

Sentiment: As a result of October’s option expiration, the SOIR reading for the Networking sector has dropped significantly to a one-year percentile rank of four percent. Some optimism is also evident in the sector’s low short-interest ratio, which has declined in recent months. However, analyst rankings (at 49 percent “buys”) remain relatively low (given the recent price action), providing added hope for the bulls.

Outlook: The AMEX Networking Index has ridden its 20-day moving average to return more than 20 percent since the beginning of August. Furthermore, NWX remains above most of its daily and weekly moving averages. The sector’s sustained strength amid pessimistic sentiment continues our outlook as short-term bullish.

Outlook for the Week

Monday, October 30th, 2006

While market participants remain cautious toward the market, we’re seeing some signs of bullish sentiment that show the recent rally has likely entered a stage of acceptance. Such a stage normally signals that a long-term run for stocks may be growing tired. Why? The rationale is fairly simple, and is wrapped up in the commonly heard phrase, “stocks climb a wall of worry.” The wall appears to be getting shorter, as formerly fearful investors caught on the sidelines during the rally are trickling into the market. People are putting their “sideline money” to work, there is less and less of what the market needs (assets) to continue to climb.

Another sign of growing optimism comes from the past week of activity in the options market. The recent trend in the CBOE equity put/call ratio has dropped quickly ?the ratio’s one-month moving average is currently 0.63, down from 0.67 just two weeks ago. The ratio’s sudden drop indicates that options traders have been favoring calls (bullish bets) over puts (bearish bets) of late as money continues to flow back into the market. Falling in line with the VIX, this trend will continue to lure more call buyers into the market, but not without a cost. When the market begins to soften, these investors will begin to sell stocks and/or purchase more puts, causing the trend in stocks and the equity put/call ratio to reverse. When that happens, one must watch the market with a cautious eye.

Trading Strategies-1

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

Trading Strategy: Breakout from Bullish Wide Range Bar (+WRB) off Major Support (MS) and Minor Support (mS). Last month, GE rallied to a new 52-week high, and pulled in to mS (the prior high in January), before closing with a +WRB. Subsequently, it consolidated for six trading days in a tight range, within the range of the prior +WRB, creating a large base of demand. Previous day, it closed with a +WRB off MS (the prior low), penetrating through the supply of the consolidation area. Although the prior high will act as resistance, the bullish consolidation over time has absorbed some of the prior supply, suggesting new highs.

Watch list for 10/30/2006 - Short

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

SHORT:
Swing possibilities (ST-PT)

BPOP short under: 17.93, stop above: 18.17, target: 17 areas ST
Last/next earning date: Oct 13, 2006

URI short under: 24.21, stop above: 24.81, target: 23 areas ST
Last/next earning date: OCT 31, 2006

TEVA short under: 33.19, stop above: 33.63, target: 32–31 areas ST
Last/next earning date: Nov 07, 2006

Watch list for 10/30/2006 - Long

Sunday, October 29th, 2006

Watch list for 10/30/2006
IMPORTANT: Take only the opportunities that you really like and understand. Always enter a trade with a trading plan. If you have any questions, please feel free to ask me. There is a much greater chance of success in your trading if you understand the trade. That is very important. Taking just a few trades is enough to be a successful trader. Overtrading is probably the number one reason new traders fail.

LONG:

Day trade possibilities (DT-ST)

MAT long above: 22.56, stop under: 22.40, target: 23.00 area DT

SVU long above: 33.68, stop under: 33.50, target: 34.50-35 areas DT ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­___________________________________________________________________________

GOOG = 1000?

Friday, October 27th, 2006

Looking at GOOG, it just seems to be a money tree, Haha
I picked it when it was $300, now is is up close to 50%, I definately see it goes up even more, may be a double from here in 6 months.

AMZN will not ever reach 1000, but will GOOG?

Weekly Stock Pick - for the coming week

Friday, October 27th, 2006

I like to share a screaming buy I recently found:

It is INTERVOICE (INTV)

INTV provides converged voice and data solutions for the network and enterprise markets worldwide.

Basic reasons:
-There are heavy and frequent insiders buying activities (60K of shares were bought)
-Money Mangers also bought 500k shares
-It updated Financial Results for Second Quarter of Fiscal 2007; Reiterates Q3 2007 Revenue Guidance
-10/12/06 INTV : Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform by Morgan Keegan.

Technical shows:
-Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
-The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
-Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
-Chart pattern indicates a Possible Trend Reversal to the up side

Price Analysis:
-Yr. High 9.50
-Yr. Low 5.58
-MO Chg.(%) -5.9
-Resistance 6.75
-Support N/A
-SELL STOP 5.47
-Volatility(%) 4.1
-Position 40
-ADXR 24

P/E (ttm):
26.88
EPS (ttm):
0.234

Price Target:

$9.3 / share (50%)

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