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Archive for September, 2007

Insider’s Undervalued Candidate

Saturday, September 29th, 2007

========= Undervalued Stock #1 ==========

———- Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) ——–

Insider Name: Aubrey K. McClendon
Insider Position: Chairman and CEO
Insider Action: 50,000 shrs on 9/24/2007 - 9/25/2007
Insider Total Holding: 28,106,318 shrs

——————————————————-
Undervaluation Merits…

P/E Ratio = 9.8 (Industry Average 17.5)
P/S Ratio = 2.24 (Industry Average 5.53)
P/B Ratio = 1.72 (Industry Average 3.15)
P/CF Ratio = 5.00 (Industry Average 25.40)

Industry: Independent Oil & Gas

Insider’s Undervalued Candidate

Tuesday, September 25th, 2007

========= Undervalued Stock #2 ==========

——— Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MER) ———

Insider Name: Armando M. Codina
Insider Position: President & CEO
Insider Action: 5,760 shrs on 7/25/2007
Insider Total Holding: 13,357 shrs

——————————————————-
Undervaluation Merits…

P/E Ratio = 7.5 (Industry Average 11.4)
P/S Ratio = 0.81 (Industry Average 1.42)
P/CF Ratio = 8.40 (Industry Average 9.70)

Industry: National Investment Brokerage

——————————————————-
Other Merits…

Dividend Yield = 1.8%

——— Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MER) ———

The Weekend Edition: If You’re So Smart Why Aren’t You Rich

Friday, September 21st, 2007

The Weekend Edition: If You’re So Smart Why Aren’t You Rich

It is still not well understood why some people are rich and others are poor. Luck, timing, parents, choice of spouse and many other factors play important roles in shaping an individual’s circumstances. Past analyses have mostly just looked at income, with studies of World War II veterans finding a link between smarts and a better salary. What good is it to be smart and have a better salary if you end up broke or spending it all on credit card bills? Looking at the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979’s latest round of survey answers from more than 7,000 randomly selected participants, author Jay Zagorsky tries to tackle the question of whether better IQs lead to bulging bank accounts and less bankruptcy. The answer is no. “Being more intelligent does not confer any advantage along two of the three key dimensions of financial success (income, net worth and financial distress),” says Zagorsky, looking at the data with statistical tests. And when it comes to financial distress, smarts are no help at all.

People with 140 IQ scores (a score of 100 is average) missed payments and maxed-out their credit cards more often than their lower IQ counterparts. “Only among people slightly above-average does an increasing IQ score lead to a reduced chance of financial distress,” says the study. “The survey provides no data to explain why this occurs,” but Zagorsky offers these explanations for High IQ types getting into financial hot water:

They might be busier and less focused on routines like paying bills.
They might lead a lifestyle that is closer to the financial precipice because they feel they are smart enough to get away with the risks of credit card spending and saving less.
“Since intelligence is not a factor for explaining wealth,” he writes, “individuals with low intelligence should not believe they are handicapped in achieving financial success, nor should high intelligence people believe they have an advantage.”

High PE ratio - AMZN - Get Ready for the Fall

Monday, September 17th, 2007

The bigger they are, the harder they fall.” This old saying sums up the worst nightmare of every Amazon investor, and every investor in today’s market. Dare ye buy at the top?

Every day, Nasdaq.com publishes a list of the market’s top stocks — the companies whose shares have just hit their highest intraday price of any time in the past 52 weeks. Every day, investors read this list and tremble — some with greed (big mo’, baby!), and others in pure, unmitigated, acrophobic terror (whatever you do, don’t look down).

You could heed them. You could ignore them. You could take the stock tickers and construct anagrams from ‘em. For my money, though, the best course of action is to use the “52 week high” list as just a starting (or selling) point for further research. After all, stocks can go up for many reasons, and it’s up to you to decide how worthy those reasons are.

With that said, let’s meet recent list of contenders, drawn from the latest “52 week high” list at Nasdaq.com. What does our panel of more than 65,000 stock gurus (and counting) have to say about them?

Sell Amazon (AMZN)
Use that profit to buy (HIMX)

amzn.png

———— Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) ———-

Saturday, September 15th, 2007

———— Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) ———-

Insider Name: Leonard Riggio
Insider Position: Chairman of the Board
Insider Action: 100,000 shrs on 9/11/2007
Insider Total Holding: 13,064,597 shrs

——————————————————-
Undervaluation Merits…

P/E Ratio = 16.9 (Industry Average 18.4)
P/S Ratio = 0.42 (Industry Average 0.91)
P/B Ratio = 1.94 (Industry Average 3.22)
P/CF Ratio = 7.10 (Industry Average 12.10)

Industry: Specialty Retailer

——————————————————-
Other Merits…

Dividend Yield = 3.30%

———— Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS) ———-

Insider’s Undervalued Candidate

Thursday, September 13th, 2007

========= Undervalued Stock #1 ==========

————– HIMX ————–

Insider Position: Director and CEO
Insider Action: 29,100 shrs on 8/24/2007
Insider Total Holding: 155,200 shrs

——————————————————-
Undervaluation Merits…

P/E Ratio = 10.1 (Industry Average 41.6)
P/S Ratio = 0.34 (Industry Average 1.15)
P/B Ratio = 2.23 (Industry Average 5.21)
P/CF Ratio = 7.30 (Industry Average 18.50)

Industry: Semi conductor

——————————————————-
Other Merits…

Dividend Yield = 0.9%

What to do this Week: Buy HIMX, Short AMZN

Monday, September 10th, 2007

Valuation:
AMZN’s pe=110
HIMX’s pe=10

Company future Priced in:
AMZN=Investor has a false picture perfect image, but in fact, their plan are old concepts that will not make $
HIMX=Investor has a false picture of lawsuite, (price dropped to the lowest when being sued, but usually goes up from that point)

Technical Analysis:
AMZN:
http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=AMZN&4086#ttop

“Downside� TRADE QUALITY 95%, Excellent

TARGET 1 Price: 73.57 Profit: 12.2% , for a typical pullback.
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 86.08 Loss: 2.8%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 4.4 : 1 - Excellent

TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 1 support areas on the way to Target 1.
Stocks may quickly fall to Targets when there are not many support areas blocking the way.

TARGET 1 SUPPORT -6.2% at 78.55 ± 1.73, type single, strength 3
-12.2% at 73.57 is Target 1

TARGET 2 Price: 70.21 Profit: 16.2% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 5.8 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme pullback.

HIMX:
http://www.stockconsultant.com/consultnow/basicplus.cgi?ID=sample&symbol=HIMX&6502#ttop
“LONG” TRADE QUALITY 100%, Excellent
Good trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.
TARGET 1 Price: 4.81 Profit: 22.4% , for a typical rally.
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 3.79 Loss: 3.6%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 6.2 : 1 - Excellent

TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
Stocks may quickly rise to Targets when there are not many resistance areas blocking the way.

TARGET 1 RESISTANCE +10.9% at 4.36 ± 0.11, type single, strength 5
+22.4% at 4.81 is Target 1

TARGET 2 Price: 5 Profit: 27.2% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 7.6 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme rally.

himx.png

Weekly Pick for next week — HIMX

Saturday, September 8th, 2007

HIMX is a stock which has a very real chance to be up 50%+ by Christmas time.

Low volume selling indicates weak hands. Let hope the smart money will stay. Based on Fundamentals. It is a screaming Buy. But technicals are getting streached and we are at a point of bottoming. I will not trust any drop on low volume and will remain a holder.

After researching this company and looking that the fundamentals, I just loaded up some today.

This stock is so undervalued. It has great fundamentals. Today is the bottoms. With the market down 250 points today, next week is due for a jump.

This suit is a tatic and it is going to be dismissed. Once that is out of the way, there could be a 15-20% rally.

When it’s $4.23, its only 4.03 because you’re going to get .20 back per share in a month. This thing has doubled rev in the past two years, upped guidance past WS expectations, beat WS expectations, trading with a 10 PE (actually only 9 because its .20 cheaper than its trading price)….oh why go on. I’ve never seen anything deny logic as much as this. And it just flippin sits everyday. Stale money everyday. Actually, it just keeps crawlin lower so worse than stale money. Unbelievable.

Cheer for value investors.

Weekly Market Preview

Tuesday, September 4th, 2007

From Tuesday’s closing low, the Dow Jones Industrials rallied 317 points into the Labor Day Holiday weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news was that the popular benchmark still managed to lose 21 points on the week to close at 13,357.74. In fact, the only popular average to gain on the week was the NASDAQ Composite, which added 20 points to close at 2596.36.

The S+P500 added 41 points from its Tuesday low to finish the week down just 5 points to 1473.99. The small cap Russell 2000 was the week’s weakest performer dropping 6 points to close the week at 792.69. Stocks were aided by comments from Fed chief Ben Bernanke, who assured Wall Street that he’s ready to cut rates to avoid any further crisis. Those comments were backed up by President Bush, who went on the record by saying the Federal government will do all it can to help the people who shouldn’t have bought homes in the first place, so at least they might be able to keep them. That is as long as it wasn’t hit by a hurricane first. If that was the case, then you’re in trouble.

So, while those in the media (along with those at Starbuck’s) argue the pros and cons of whether or not the Fed will cut rates, one thing is for certain. Housing is dead in the water, and no one knows how long it will take before that is ultimately going to affect this nation of happy-go-lucky consumers. How about never? What more can you expect from a society where an infamous convicted tax dodger known as the “Queen of Mean” dies and leaves nothing to her grandchildren but ponies up $12 million for her poor lonely little dog.

The trade shortened week starts on Tuesday with U.S. auto sales expected to post a fractional gain for August, while the ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline. Wednesday, the Fed’s beige book of regional economic data is released, while July home sales are seen dropping 3% in July. HP unveils a number of new PC’s and computer game products, while Apple releases its latest iPod in San Francisco. Challenger, Gray & Christmas report August job cut announcements.

Thursday, retailers report August sales of the back to school variety, while home builder Hovnanian reports third quarter earnings expected to shed further light on the weak state of the new homes market. H&R Block is at the center of a proxy fight being staged by Richard Breeden with results expected to be announced. Friday brings the non farm payrolls report expected to rise 95,000 and below the level to keep unemployment stats unchanged. Expect the jobless rate to rise to 4.7%.

dow.png

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