My Stock Winners

We picked Amazon (AMZN) for a Downside Trade (Short position)
TRADE QUALITY: 90%, which is rated Excellent
TARGET 1 Price: 61.38 Profit: 11.8% , for a typical pullback.
Cover Limit/Trailing Cover Limit: 71.22 Loss: 2.3%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 5.1 : 1 - Excellent

TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 0 support areas on the way to Target 1.
Stocks may quickly fall to Targets when there are not many support areas blocking the way.

TARGET 2 Price: 58.13 Profit: 16.5% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 7.2 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme pullback.

BREAKDOWN WATCH for possible breakdown below 67.72, no support in area just below.
Type: Continuation breakdown from single support.
Target: 61.67, 11.4% Cover: 71.22, Loss: 2.3%, Profit/Loss ratio: 5 : 1 - Excellent

SUPPORT BELOW -11.8% at 61.38 (we expect AMZN to reach these level in 3 months)
-35.5% at 44.89 ± 0.9, type single, strength 2
-39.6% at 42.03 ± 0.84, type triple, strength 9
-43.9% at 39.06 ± 0.78, type triple+, strength 10
-46.5% at 37.26 ± 0.75, type triple, strength 9

AMZN Music Download Business will Fail and it will effect the bottom line. The cost of the rights to the music are enormous. You can already download all of the same music files from foreign distributors like www.mp3sugar.com for less than half of what iTunes or mp3.com or even AMZN will be able to offer.

AMZN will just be one in several hundred retail sources for downloads now, one in a thousand by the years end.

The unrestricted format is an attempt to undo the Amazon Unbox blunder that has plagued them and caused disgruntled e-patrons to find alternative download formats.

The Television Cable Service providers will be the next to have their hand in the music download sector. They have far more reach than anyone when it comes to marketing, and they also have far greater technology. Watch as they dominate NFLX,BBI and even TIVO in the coming years. AMZN is not a player in this and never will be.

No institutions are buying at this price.
Friday volume was only 9.9 million shares compare to average volume of over 13 million shares. It’s been trading over 20-40 million shares a day since the big pop up from 62 range and this is huge drop in volume from that point under 10 million shs. Everyone knows it’s overpriced and went down when other tech companies went higher Friday. It will be below 60 soon because when it falls, it will fall like hot knife through butter.

A day after I recommended SNDK, it is upgraded by Citigroup from “hold” to “buy”.
Great pick, isn’t it?

Will INTV be next?
I certainly hope so.

Disclosure: sold SNDK and replaced with INTV today due to upgrade (sell the news, buy the rumors)

Intervoice Inc. (INTV)

Recommendation:Strong Buy (Target: 8+)

Technical Comments:
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 6.39
Price Target: 8-10

Price Analysis
Yr. High 8.10
Yr. Low 5.58
MO Chg.(%) 1.5
Trend Line Resistance N/A
Trend Line Support 6.39
Resistance Range 6.84-6.87
Support Range 6.61-6.65
SELL STOP 5.94
Volatility(%) 2.8
Position 66
ADXR 15
MA Price % Slope
10 Day 6.71 100.4 UP
21 Day 6.67 100.8 UP
50 Day 6.62 101.7 UP
200 Day 6.61 101.9 DOWN
Technical Analysis

Alpha -0.04
Beta 1.14

MACD ST BL
MACD LT BL
STO(Fast %K) 46
STO(Slow %K) 63
50-Day R.S. 0.99
Wilder’s RSI 44
OBOS -1
B.BANDS 33
RSV 25

Ok, humor me, are we getting another dividend before the end of the year?

Why the stock has fallen because of a one month strike at one mine seems rather excessive to me, I’d say the shorties have convinced the small thinkers this is a major problem….yah sure to a pinstripe hedgehog its a problem….not for me. Look at the reserves…look at the new discovery at Doyon….thats what will make you rich in the long run. Gold is a scarce commodity and demand is rising because fiat currency printing has run a muck. A truely great investor wants an asset that is becoming scarce and they want it long before a run up in demand. How much was a 1969 corvette in 1969 …8000 bucks …..now the same car in 2007 is probably 70,000 bucks…..why because they don’t make great cars like this anymore. Why do you think the mona Lisa is priceless…..because its a rare commodity which cannot be replaced. Gold demand is rising…not falling….the price is rising not falling….the supply is falling not rising.

Iamgold’s production is rising not falling…its reserves are rising not falling. The short term stuff is oppurtunity not calamity. A hedgehog needs to churn profit in the short term…but can he time it perfectly to ride the rise and the fall in the commodity price…..some can some can’t. I know three very large hedehogs that lost the farm on wrong way trades in commodities. They chase the churn and now they are…. no more.
Buy the dips in the gold bull run….thats where are the money is made

Upside Trade
Trade indicators for long trades.
Upside ReCalc™ : Adjust the upside trade & breakout parameters.
( Stock Price: 6.29 )
TRADE QUALITY 90%, Excellent
Excellent trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.

TARGET 1 Price: 6.95 Profit: 10.5% , for a typical rally.
Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 6.12 Loss: 2.7%
Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.9 : 1 - Excellent

TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Good, there are 2 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
Strong resistance areas may reduce the potential to reach long Targets 1 & 2.

TARGET 1 RESISTANCE +4.1% at 6.55 ± 0.1, type triple, strength 7
+6.5% at 6.7 ± 0.11, type triple, strength 10
+10.5% at 6.95 is Target 1

TARGET 2 Price: 7.18 Profit: 14.1% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 5.2 : 1 - Excellent for an extreme rally.

Intervoice, Inc. (INTV) provides converged voice and data solutions for the network and enterprise markets worldwide. The company offers enterprise solutions, including intervoice interactive voice response solutions; intervoice media exchange, an advanced software-based platform used to create and manage voice-based solutions; various horizontal solutions to deliver voice automation applications and solutions through reusable application modules and components; and vertical solutions, applications, and reusable software modules for banking and financial services, healthcare, public sector, retail and manufacturing, transportation and travel, utilities, telecommunications industries.

Insider Transactions
Insider Purchases - Purchases 16,000
Total Insider Shares Held 389.15K N/A
% Net Shares Purchased 4.3%

Technical Indicator
Upside Trade Trade indicators for long trades
Upside ReCalc™ : Adjust the upside trade & breakout parameters. ( Stock Price: 6.92 )
- TRADE QUALITY 85%, V. Good
- Good trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.

- TARGET 1 Price: 7.66 Profit: 10.7% , for a typical rally.

- TARGET 2 Price: 7.89 Profit: 14% ,

Profit/Loss Ratio: 5.2 : 1 - Excellent

INTERVOICE (INTV) provides converged voice and data solutions for the network and enterprise markets worldwide.

Basic reasons:
-There are heavy and frequent insiders buying activities (60K of shares were bought)
-Money Mangers also bought 500k shares
-It updated Financial Results for Second Quarter of Fiscal 2007; Reiterates Q3 2007 Revenue Guidance
-10/12/06 INTV : Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform by Morgan Keegan.

Technical shows:
-Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
-The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
-Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
-Chart pattern indicates a Possible Trend Reversal to the up side

Price Analysis:
-Yr. High 9.50
-Yr. Low 5.58
-MO Chg.(%) -5.9
-Resistance 6.75
-Support N/A
-SELL STOP 5.47
-Volatility(%) 4.1
-Position 40
-ADXR 24

P/E (ttm):
26.88
EPS (ttm):
0.234

Price Target:

$9.3 / share (50%)